Global population is anticipated to reach approximately 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s, according to the United Nations’ ‘World Population Prospects 2024’ report released on Thursday. Currently at 8.2 billion, the Earth’s population is expected to peak before experiencing a slight decline to 10.2 billion by the end of the century. This projection marks a significant revision from previous estimates made a decade ago, showing a 6% reduction or 700 million fewer people than anticipated in June 2013.
Changing Demographics: A New Peak for Global Population
Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, explained the changing demographic patterns, attributing the unexpected peak to factors like declining fertility rates in major nations such as China. He highlighted that this earlier and lower peak could positively impact the fight against global warming, as fewer people will exert less pressure on the environment. However, he stressed that reduced population growth does not eliminate the necessity to decrease per capita environmental impact.
Countries Where Population Growth Has Peaked
The report also noted that 28% of the global population now resides in 63 countries or regions where population growth has already peaked, including China, Russia, Japan, and Germany. Over the next 30 years, nearly 50 more countries, such as Brazil, Iran, and Turkey, are expected to join this group. In contrast, over 120 countries, including Pakistan, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and the United States, will continue to experience population growth beyond 2054.
Life Expectancy and an Aging Population
Global life expectancy, which was temporarily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, has resumed its upward trend, reaching an average of 73.3 years in 2024 and projected to increase to 77.4 years by 2054. As a result, the global population will age significantly, with the number of people aged 65 and above expected to surpass those under 18 by the late 2070s, reaching 2.2 billion.
Press Briefing on World Population Prospects 2024
Watch the press briefing by Mr. Navid Hanif, Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), along with Mr. John Wilmoth, Director, Population Division, UN DESA, and Ms. Clare Menozzi, Senior Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, UN DESA. They brief journalists on the World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results.
This comprehensive analysis highlights the significant shifts in global demographics and their implications for future population trends and environmental sustainability. For more details, you can refer to the full report on Dawn and additional information on Wikipedia.
