BEIJING, Nov 7: As Donald Trump neared victory in the U.S. presidential race, China reaffirmed its commitment to “mutual respect” in relations with the United States, though analysts predict intensified competition over trade, technology, and security.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated that China’s policy toward the U.S. remains consistent, emphasizing peaceful coexistence and cooperation.
Trump, Tariffs, China Economy
Despite this diplomatic stance, Chinese strategists anticipate challenges if Trump returns to office, particularly regarding tariffs and trade disputes.
Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that although Trump’s win may not be China’s preferred result, it was anticipated, and Beijing is prepared to project strength and power in the world.
Da Wei, of Tsinghua University, highlighted the unpredictability surrounding Trump’s policy decisions, complicating China’s strategic planning in the economic and military domain
Trump Vowed To Impose Tariffs
Trump has previously suggested imposing significant tariffs on Chinese imports and reconsidering China’s most-favored-nation trading status. This time too, Trump vowed to impose 150% to 200% tariffs on Chinese imports if it invaded Taiwan.
This prospect is a concern for Chinese leaders, given that China exports over $400 billion annually to the U.S. Trump’s potential policy to further separate U.S.-China technology and supply chains could strain China’s economic stability and growth, according to Zhao. In response, China may seek greater self-sufficiency in technology and bolster economic alliances with countries from the global south as it had been doing.
Power Vacuum
Beijing is likely to create a list of tradeoffs to propose to Washington, aiming to mitigate domestic economic challenges while hoping Trump’s attention remains focused elsewhere, explained Brian Wong, a professor at the University of Hong Kong specializing in grand strategy.
Should Trump adopt a more isolationist stance, China could take advantage of power vacuums in regions where U.S. influence might wane. Wong suggested that China may strengthen ties with the Global South, Europe, and Northeast Asia in this context.
Additionally, Zhao noted that Trump’s anticipated withdrawal from international agreements could further provide China with opportunities to assert influence globally. Recent diplomatic engagements, such as China’s improved relations with India and overtures to Japan, demonstrate Beijing’s potential strategy in response to shifts in U.S. policy.
Taiwan
In terms of Taiwan, Trump has indicated it should contribute financially to its defense, contrasting with the Biden administration’s recent approach, which included stationing U.S. troops in Taiwan and approving a $2 billion arms sale. Shen Dingli, an international relations scholar in Shanghai, commented that Trump’s stance is unlikely to offer Taiwan the same level of support Biden provided. One thing that China could opt to do is to destabilize Trump’s presidency from the day on by invading Taiwan.
